상권

제Ⅰ부 서론

제1장 연구의 논점 및 요약 (조만⋅차문중) ························································ 3
제1절 서 론 ····································································································· 3
제2절 연구의 논점 ························································································· 11
1. 주택시장 추이 및 시사점 ·································································· 11
2. 연구의 논점 ························································································ 16
제3절 연구의 주요 내용 ················································································ 20
1. 주택시장⋅거시경제의 연계성 분석 ················································· 20
2. 주택금융시스템의 안정적인 발전방안 ·············································· 22
3. 부동산개발금융시장의 개선방안 ······················································· 25
4. 임대주택시장의 작동기제 및 정책과제 ············································ 26
5. 주거복지 제고를 위한 정책방안 ······················································· 28
참고문헌 ·········································································································· 30

제Ⅱ부 주택시장·거시경제의 연계성 분석

제2장 글로벌 금융위기와 부동산과 거시경제 연계성의 변화 (서승환) ····· 35
제1절 서 론 ··································································································· 35
제2절 문헌 고찰 ···························································································· 37
1. 소비 ····································································································· 37
2. 건설투자 ······························································································ 39
3. 주택가격 ······························································································ 40
4. 우리나라의 경우에 대한 문헌 고찰 ·················································· 43
제3절 거시경제 연계성에 관한 미시적 분석 ··············································· 51
1. 민간소비와 주택가격 ········································································· 51
2. 건설투자와 주택가격 ········································································· 54
3. 주택가격의 변화 ················································································· 55
제4절 주택시장의 거시계량모형 ··································································· 61
1. 자료 ····································································································· 61
2. 모형의 추정 결과 ··············································································· 63
3. 추정 결과의 적합도 ··········································································· 69
4. 모의실험 ······························································································ 69
제5절 요약 및 결론 ······················································································· 71
참고문헌 ·········································································································· 75
[부록] 추정의 적합도 ······················································································ 84

제3장 우리나라 주택부문과 경기변동과의 관련성에 대한 실증분석:
주거용 건설투자를 중심으로 (김영일) ···················································· 89
제1절 서 론 ··································································································· 89
목차
제2절 한국경제의 경기순환변동과 경기침체 ··············································· 91
제3절 주택가격 및 가계신용과 경기변동과의 관련성 ································· 93
제4절 주택투자의 순환변동과 거시경제: 개관 ············································ 96
제5절 GDP 증가율에 대한 주택투자의 기여도 평가:
경기침체기를 중심으로 ······································································· 98
1. GDP 증가율에 대한 항목별 기여도 ················································ 98
2. GDP 증가율에 대한 항목별 기여도의 추세와 순환변동 ············· 101
3. GDP 증가율에 대한 항목별 기여도의 누적 순환변동 ················· 104
4. GDP 증가율에 대한 항목별 기여도의 평균 누적순환변동:
경기침체기를 중심으로 ···································································· 108
5. 경기침체기별 GDP 증가율 둔화에 대한 항목별 기여도 비교 ······ 111
제6절 본 연구의 한계 및 향후 연구방향에 대한 논의 ····························· 112
제7절 결론: 요약 및 정책적 시사점 ··························································· 115
참고문헌 ········································································································· 117

제4장 주택시장과 주택금융시장의 구조모형 분석 (민인식) ························ 120
제1절 서 론 ·································································································· 120
제2절 주택시장의 수요-공급 모형 ····························································· 122
제3절 주택금융시장모형 ·············································································· 126
제4절 실증분석모형 추정과 결과 해석 ······················································ 132
1. 주택시장모형 추정 ··········································································· 133
2. 주택금융시장모형 추정 ····································································· 141
제5절 주택금융변수 변화에 대한 시뮬레이션 ············································ 147
1. 이자율 상승이 주택시장에 미치는 영향 ········································ 147
2. 주택금융제약( ) 변화가 주택시장에 미치는 영향 ········· 151
3. Credit Condition Index가 주택시장에 미치는 영향 ···················· 155
4. 시뮬레이션 결과 요약 ······································································ 160
제6절 결론 및 정책적 시사점 ····································································· 162
참고문헌 ········································································································· 165

제5장 유럽 국가의 주택 및 거시경제: 신용경로, 위험(리스크) 그리고
통화충격의 역할 (Victor Dorofeenko⋅Gabriel S. Lee⋅
Kevin D. Salyer) ························································································ 166
제1절 서론 및 요약 ····················································································· 166
제2절 최근 유럽 주택시장의 전개: 현황 ··················································· 171
1. 주거용 건물투자 ··············································································· 171
2. 가계부채 ···························································································· 171
3. 이자율 ································································································ 173
4. LTV ···································································································· 175
제3절 모형: 주택시장, 금융중개기관 및 통화정책 ···································· 175
1. 주택모형에서의 통화 및 화폐선불제약: 가계 ································ 176
2. 불확실성을 포함한 신용채널 ··························································· 180
3. 정부 예산제한 ··················································································· 185
4. 모형의 최종 공식 ············································································· 185
제4절 실증적 결과 ······················································································· 186
1. 캘리브레이션 ····················································································· 186
2. 역동성(Dynamics) ············································································· 193
제5절 결 론 ·································································································· 199
참고문헌 ········································································································· 201

제Ⅲ부 주택금융시스템의 안정적인 발전방안

제6장 주택금융과 거시⋅미시 건전성 규제: 시장지표 및
정책개발을 위한 제도적⋅실증적 분석 (조만) ··································· 207
제1절 서 론 ·································································································· 207
제2절 주택대출 및 주택가격 추세 ······························································ 211
1. 주택담보대출시장 현황 ···································································· 211
2. 우리나라 주택가격의 순환성 패턴 ··················································· 215
제3절 우리나라 주택금융시스템의 평가 ····················································· 220
1. 주택금융시스템의 미시적 구조 ······················································· 220
2. 대출상품 측면에서의 평가 ······························································ 222
3. 대출심사기준 측면에서의 평가 ······················································· 224
4. 자금조달 측면에서의 평가 ······························································ 227
5. 규제 측면에서의 평가 ······································································ 230
6. 주택금융시스템의 미시적 분석: 요약 ·············································· 233
제4절 시장 모니터링을 위한 지표개발 ······················································ 233
1. 시장 펀더멘털의 모니터링 ······························································ 233
2. CCI를 통한 시장 모니터링 ····························································· 237
3. 신용리스크지표를 통한 시장 모니터링 ··········································· 241
제5절 정책제언 및 결언 ·············································································· 243
참고문헌 ········································································································· 249
[부록] ············································································································· 254

제7장 주택금융 및 신용채널의 거시경제 연관성에 대한 분석 (송인호) ··258
제1절 서 론 ·································································································· 258
1. 기존 문헌의 고찰 ············································································· 259
2. 주택의 특성 ······················································································ 261
3. VAR을 통한 주택가격과 거시경제의 상호 연계성 ······················· 264
4. 본 장의 구성 ····················································································· 268
제2절 모 형 ·································································································· 268
1. 신용의 제약을 받지 않는 소비자 ··················································· 270
2. 신용의 제약을 받는 소비자 ···························································· 271
3. 기업가 ································································································ 273
4. 최종소비재 공급자 ··········································································· 274
5. 중앙은행 ···························································································· 275
6. 일반균형을 위한 정상 상태 ···························································· 275
7. 캘리브레이션과 추정 ········································································ 276
제3절 시뮬레이션의 결과 ············································································ 279
1. 시뮬레이션을 통한 주택가격의 전이과정 ······································ 279
2. 주택가격 상승과 일반 소비 ···························································· 280
3. 긴축통화정책에서의 담보대출비율(LTV)의 변화 ····························· 282
제4절 결어: 연구 결과의 요약과 정책적 시사점 ······································· 286
1. 연구 결과의 요약 ············································································· 286
2. 정책적 시사점 ··················································································· 287
참고문헌 ········································································································· 290
[부록] ············································································································· 293

제8장 주택담보대출 신용위험의 측정과 관리: 글로벌 금융위기 이후의
추세와 신흥시장국에 대한 교훈을 중심으로 (Tyler T. Yang⋅
Jessie Y. Zhang) ······················································································· 298
제1절 서 론 ·································································································· 298
목차
제2절 모기지 신용위험의 측정 ··································································· 300
1. 모기지 신용위험지표 ········································································ 300
2. 사전 위험평가 ··················································································· 304
3. 손실의 최소화: 후발적 위험의 최소화 ············································ 306
제3절 위험에 기반한 자본규제 ··································································· 307
1. 최소자본 결정방법 ··········································································· 307
2. 방법에 대한 평가 ·············································································· 315
제4절 글로벌 금융위기 이후의 주택금융정책 규제 ··································· 319
1. 규제개혁의 동향 ··············································································· 319
2. 위험분담과 적정 주거용 모기지(QRM) ·········································· 320
3. 경기역행적 완충장치 ········································································ 327
4. 시장의 위험분담 ··············································································· 334
제5절 결 론 ·································································································· 337
참고문헌 ········································································································· 340

제9장 모기지 신용위기의 결정요인: 미국, 유럽 모기지시장의
비교 분석 (Hans-Joachim Dübel) ························································· 342
제1절 서 론 ·································································································· 342
1. 미국, 유럽의 모기지 신용 버블과 금융위기 ································· 342
2. 모기지시장 구조 및 규제의 영향 – 주요 가설 ····························· 344
3. 연구의 구성 ······················································································· 344
제2절 미국, 유럽 모기지시장 구조 및 규제의 비교 분석 ························ 346
1. 모기지 금융시스템의 설계 ······························································ 346
2. 금융 및 보험 규제 ··········································································· 353
3. 경쟁환경 ···························································································· 359
4. 소비자 보호규정 ··············································································· 361
5. 주택구입능력정책 ·············································································· 372
제3절 금융안정정책에 대한 교훈 ································································ 377
1. 미국과 유럽의 관점 ········································································· 377
2. 유럽 내의 상황 ················································································· 384
3. 한국을 위한 교훈 ·············································································· 385
제4절 결 론 ·································································································· 390
참고문헌 ········································································································· 393

하권

제Ⅳ부 부동산개발금융시장의 개선방안

제10장 부동산개발금융의 선진화 방안 (손재영) ···············································3
제1절 부동산개발금융의 의의 ······································································3
제2절 한국형 PF대출의 특징과 문제점 ·······················································5
1. 한국형 PF대출의 특징 ······································································5
2. 한국형 PF구조하에서의 역할분담 ····················································6
3. 한국형 PF의 문제점 ········································································13
4. PF 부실 원인에 대한 인식: AHP 분석 ··········································18
제3절 개발금융의 개선방안 ········································································23
1. 시장환경 변화 ···················································································23
2. 개발금융 개선방안에 관한 선행연구 ·············································25
3. 개발금융 개선방안에 대한 인식조사 ·············································26
목차
4. 주요 개선방안의 심층 검토 ·····························································32
제4절 결 론 ·································································································48
참고문헌 ········································································································50
[부록] ·············································································································52

제11장 부동산개발금융: 2000년대 미국 부동산시장의 사례 연구
(Min Hwang) ·······························································································54
제1절 서 론 ·································································································54
제2절 부동산개발의 경제적 영향 ·······························································56
제3절 1980년대의 저축대부조합 위기 ·······················································59
1. 저축대부조합 위기의 역사 ······························································59
2. 서브프라임 위기와의 비교 ·······························································61
제4절 부동산개발과 유동성 ········································································63
제5절 미국에서의 부동산개발과정 ······························································64
1. 부동산개발단계 ·················································································65
2. 부동산개발과정을 진행하기 위한 자금조달 ····································68
제6절 부동산개발 시 자기자본조달 ····························································69
1. 투자자와 개발업자 사이에 현금흐름 분배 ····································71
2. 부동산개발 시의 기관투자가 ···························································72
제7절 부동산개발 시 부채를 통한 자본조달 ·············································75
1. 장기 대출 ··························································································75
2. 단기 대출 ··························································································78
3. 단기 대출 성과에 대한 실증분석 ····················································82
제8절 정책적 합의 ·······················································································92
1. 인수기준 감독 ···················································································93
2. 감시과정(대출 개시 후)의 감시 ·······················································94
제9절 결 론 ·································································································95
참고문헌 ········································································································97

제12장 대만의 건설금융: 현황 및 정책제도 (Chin-Oh Chang⋅
Ming-Chi Chen) ·······················································································100
제1절 서 론 ································································································100
제2절 부동산 사이클 ·················································································103
1. 첫 번째 주기(1972~74년) ······························································103
2. 두 번째 주기(1978~80년) ·····························································104
3. 세 번째 주기(1987~89년) ·····························································105
4. 네 번째 주기(2004~11년) ·····························································105
제3절 건설산업의 발전과 운영 ·································································106
1. 건설산업의 발전 역사 ····································································106
2. 주택투자 및 건설산업 ····································································108
3. 프로젝트 건설방식들 ······································································113
4. 건설회사의 형태 및 건축절차 ························································113
제4절 건설산업의 파이낸싱 ·······································································116
1. 발전 역사 ························································································116
2. 건설산업의 자금조달방식 ·······························································117
3. 건설업의 주요 불이행 위험 ···························································121
제5절 건설산업의 특징 및 문제점 ···························································122
제6절 건설산업에 대한 규제 및 정책 ······················································128
1. 건설산업의 과잉투자를 억제하기 위한 정책적 방안 ··················129
2. 건설사의 폐업을 막기 위한 정책적 방안 ·····································129
제7절 건설투자 및 자금조달에 영향을 미치는
요인에 대한 실증분석 ·······································································130
목차
1. 문헌연구 ··························································································130
2. 실증모형 ··························································································132
3. 자료분석 ··························································································133
4. 실증분석 결과 ·················································································133
제8절 결론 및 함축적 의미 ······································································136
참고문헌 ······································································································139

제Ⅴ부 임대주택시장의 작동기제 및 정책과제

제13장 임대주택 시장과 정책 (김경환) ····························································145
제1절 서 론 ································································································145
제2절 우리나라 임대주택시장의 추이 ······················································147
1. 주택점유형태 ···················································································147
2. 임대주택부문 ···················································································151
제3절 외국의 임대주택정책 ·······································································158
1. 임대주택정책의 주요 수단 ·····························································158
2. 주요 외국의 임대주택정책과 시사점 ·············································159
제4절 우리나라 임대주택정책의 현황과 과제 ··········································167
1. 임대주택정책의 현황 ······································································167
2. 임대주택정책의 과제 ······································································171
제5절 요약 및 결론 ···················································································179
참고문헌 ······································································································183

제14장 전월세시장의 변화에 대한 이론적 분석과 정책적 시사점:
임차인 관점을 중심으로 (이용만) ························································186
제1절 서 론 ································································································186
제2절 우리나라 전세제도의 진화과정과 현 상황 ····································189
1. 우리나라 전세제도의 기원 ·····························································189
2. 우리나라 전세제도의 진화과정과 현황 ·········································191
제3절 전세시장의 행태 분석을 위한 이론적 검토 ··································200
1. 선행연구에 대한 검토 ····································································200
2. 이론적 검토 ·····················································································203
제4절 실증분석 ··························································································229
1. 전월세전환율의 장기균형 ·······························································229
2. 임차인의 전월세 선택 ····································································232
제5절 전월세시장의 변화와 정책적 시사점 ·············································235
1. 전월세시장의 변화에 대한 해석 ···················································235
2. 정책적 시사점 ·················································································239
3. 연구의 한계 ·····················································································241
참고문헌 ······································································································243

제15장 임대인의 임대계약형태 선택모형: 포트폴리오 이론에
기초하여 (이창무) ·····················································································246
제1절 서 론 ································································································246
제2절 국내 주택시장 분석의 틀 및 선행연구 고찰 ································248
1. 국내 주택시장의 특이성 ································································248
2. 국내 주택시장의 3차원 구조 ························································251
3. 주택임대시장과 금융시장과의 연결성 ··········································253
4. 주택임대시장 내 부분균형모형 ·····················································258
5. 서울시 아파트 투자수익률 및 위험도 분석 사례 ·························260
제3절 이론적 해석 ·····················································································264
목차
1. 레버리지 위험을 고려한 임대시장균형 모형 ·······························264
2. 개별 임대인의 최적 보증금 비중 선택모형 ··································271
제4절 기초실증분석 ···················································································279
1. 분석 자료 ························································································279
2. 임대인의 은행대출 행태 ································································281
3. 임대가구 특성별 보증금 비중 선택 ···············································283
제5절 보증금 비중 선택요인 실증분석 ····················································285
1. 실증분석모형 ···················································································286
2. 분석 결과 ························································································290
제6절 요약 및 정책적 함의 ······································································295
1. 요약 ··································································································295
2. 정책적 함의 ·····················································································296
참고문헌 ······································································································300

제Ⅵ부 주거복지 제고를 위한 정책방안

제16장 주거복지 현황과 정책과제 (정의철) ····················································305
제1절 서 론 ································································································305
제2절 주거복지의 개념과 분석방향 ··························································307
제3절 주거수준 현황과 주택수요 분석 ····················································308
1. 주거수준 현황 ·················································································308
2. 주택수요 분석 ·················································································320
제4절 주거복지정책 현황과 평가 ·····························································329
1. 주거복지정책 체계 ··········································································329
2. 주거복지정책의 평가 ······································································335
제5절 주거복지정책의 방향과 과제 ··························································346
1. 공공임대주택의 지속적 공급 ·························································346
2. 민간부문의 적극적 활용 ································································348
3. 저소득층 지원 프로그램의 형평성 제고 ······································350
4. 자립형 주거복지시스템 구축 ·························································351
5. 생애주기별 종합적 주거복지정책 수립 ········································353
6. 주거복지정책의 시장친화성 강화 ··················································354
참고문헌 ······································································································356